技术性贸易措施对上海出口贸易影响的实证分析

摘要：

上海地区出口主要以工业产品为主，技术性贸易措施对上海产品出口贸易的影响日益受到重视。本文通过构建修正引力模型，在关注TBT数量对地区出口影响的假设上，研究上海主要出口目的地实施TBT措施对上海出口贸易的影响程度及规律。结论显示：进口国（地区）TBT措施对上海出口贸易存在一定的抑制作用，且当期影响最大，考虑到影响的时滞性，上海出口贸易遭遇TBT负面影响随着时间缓慢衰减，且降幅不大，说明了TBT对出口的实际影响是复杂的，另外，发达国家发起TBT后3个月内的抑制程度最强。

Abstract:

The main export products of Shanghai area are industrial products, and the influence of TBT measures on the export trade of Shanghai products has been increasingly valued. Based on the hypothesis of the influence of TBT quantity on regional exports, this paper studies the influence of TBT measures on Shanghai’s export trade by constructing a modified gravity model. The results show that: the TBT measures of importing countries or regions have a certain inhibiting effect on Shanghai's export trade, and the impact is the largest impact in the current period. Considering the time lag of the impact, the negative trade impact of TBT of importing countries on Shanghai will slowly decline over time, but the degree of reduction is very small, indicating that the actual impact of TBT on exports is complex; From the perspective of the impact of TBT on Shanghai’s exports in the current period and three months behind, the export destinations of developed countries are stronger than other countries or regions.

作者简介：石念，统计学硕士，工程师，研究方向为统计学应用、质量和标准化、国际贸易。