法庭科学/司法鉴定标准的质量评价研究——基于MATLAB数据分析法

摘要：

【目的】构建法庭科学/司法鉴定标准的量化评价体系，为标准建设的科学性、规范性、适用性提供量化决策支撑。【方法】基于我国108项现行国家标准的统计分析，运用层次分析法（AHP）构建包含标准内容质量、实施效益、实施状况3个准则层及8个指标层的评价体系。通过MATLAB开发标准评价工具，对我国60项代表性国家标准与行业标准开展实证评价，结合Python开展聚类分析，挖掘数据特征。【结果】国家标准整体质量优于行业标准，2024年新发布标准平均综合评分达9.1分，显著高于旧标准；部分标准存在标龄过长、体系覆盖不全、实施效益低等问题；聚类分析将标准分为优质、中间、低质三组，结果显示基础与管理类标准供给不足。【结论】应依托《中华人民共和国标准化法》完善标准全周期动态管理，建立“5年强制复评+3年动态监测”机制；规范评价流程，动态优化指标体系；通过数字化平台提升评价效能，加强国际协同，解决标准体系结构性失衡，推动法庭科学标准化从“经验范式”向“科学实证范式”转型。

Abstract:

[Objective] The study aims to construct a quantitative evaluation system for forensic science standards, providing quantitative decision-making support to enhance the scientifi c validity, normative consistency, and applicability of standard development. [Methods] Based on the statistical analysis of 108 current national standards in China, an evaluation system was constructed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), comprising three criteria (content quality, implementation benefits, and implementation status) and eight indicators. A standard evaluation tool was developed using MATLAB to empirically evaluate 60 representative national and industry standards, combined with Python cluster analysis to mine data characteristics. [Results] Results indicate that the overall quality of national standards outperforms that of industry standards. Standards released in 2024 achieved an average comprehensive score of 9.1, signifi cantly higher than older standards. However, issues such as aging standards, incomplete systemic coverage, and low implementation benefi ts persist. Cluster analysis stratifi ed standards into high-quality, intermediate, and low-quality groups, revealing an insuffi cient supply of basic and management-related standards. [Conclusion] It is recommended to improve the full-lifecycle dynamic management of standards by leveraging the Standardization Law of China, and to establish a “5-year mandatory review + 3-year dynamic monitoring” mechanism. The evaluation process should be standardized, and the indicator system dynamically optimized. Furthermore, evaluation effi ciency should be enhanced through digital platforms and international collaboration to address structural imbalances in the standards system, ultimately driving the transformation of forensic science standardization from an “experiential paradigm” to a “scientifi c empirical paradigm”.

引用格式：张洺睿，王旭. 法庭科学/司法鉴定标准的质量评价研究——基于MATLAB数据分析法[J]. 标准化学报，2026 (7)：6-16.

基金项目：本文受国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘技管结合’的现代司法鉴定制度法治化重塑研究”（项目编号：2025-25AFX014）资助。 

作者简介：张洺睿，硕士，法官助理，研究方向为审判管理、学术论文、法院信息。王旭，通信作者，硕士，教授，研究方向为司法鉴定制度、法庭科学标准科研、教学工作。