面向“双碳”目标的森林植被固碳释氧生态功能气象评价等级标准化研究

摘要：

【目的】为响应“双碳”目标对生态气象服务的需求，围绕气象行业标准QX/T 714—2024《森林植被固碳释氧生态功能气象评价等级》展开系统解析，梳理其构建的科学、规范的森林植被固碳释氧生态功能气象评价技术体系，为生态气象标准化建设提供支撑。【方法】该标准采用FORCCHN模型，以森林净生态系统生产力（CNEP）为核心，定量计算森林植被固碳释氧量；通过对比当年气象条件下森林固碳释氧量与多年平均气候条件下对应值的相对距平，构建气象评价指数，运用自然断点法划分5级评价等级；从全国尺度（与森林资源清查数据及已有研究对比）和站点尺度（通量站观测数据验证）开展模型有效性验证，并对评价方法的不确定性来源与适用范围进行系统分析。【结果】全国尺度，2011—2019年我国森林年平均CNEP模拟值为0.199 PgC/a，与清查数据及研究结论基本一致；站点尺度，模拟的CNEP与观测值相关系数达0.85以上，具有显著相关性；该标准构建的5级评价等级可科学量化气象条件对森林植被固碳释氧生态功能的影响程度。【结论】该标准的评价体系科学可行、适配各级生态相关业务评估与多场景应用、助力生态气象规范化建设及“双碳”目标落地，落地时需正视多项不确定性问题并依托配套优化举措减小结果偏差。

Abstract:

[Objective] To meet the requirements of ecological meteorological services in the context of the “Dual Carbon” goal, the systematic interpretation was conducted on the meteorological industry standard QX/T 714—2024, Grade of meteorological assessment on ecological function of carbon fixation and oxygen release of forest vegetation. The established scientific and standardized technical system for the meteorological assessment of the ecological function of carbon fixation and oxygen release of forest vegetation was sorted out, providing support for the construction of ecological meteorological standardization. [Methods] The forest net ecosystem productivity (CNEP) was adopted as the core indicator. The carbon fixation and oxygen release capacity of forest vegetation was quantitatively calculated using the FORCCHN model. The meteorological evaluation index was constructed by comparing the relative changes in forest carbon sequestration and oxygen release between the current year and multiple years of meteorological conditions, and the five-level grading system was established using the natural breaks method. Model validity was verified at both the national scale (through comparison with forest resource inventory data and existing studies) and the site scale (through comparison with forest flux tower observation data). The uncertainty sources and applicability boundaries of the evaluation method were systematically analyzed. [Results] At the national scale, the simulated annual mean CNEP of forests in China from 2011 to 2019 was estimated to be 0.199 PgC/a, which was found to be generally consistent with inventory data and previous research findings. At the site scale, the simulated CNEP was significantly correlated with observed values, with the correlation coefficient exceeding 0.85. The five-level grading system constructed by this standard can be used to scientifically quantify the influences of meteorological conditions on the ecological function of carbon fixation and oxygen release of forest vegetation. [Conclusion] The evaluation system stipulated by this standard was proven to be scientifically robust and reliable, and was capable of meeting the assessment needs of multi-scale business services at both national and provincial scales. It can support scenario applications such as forestry carbon sequestration assessment and ecological compensation accounting, effectively enhancing the standardization level of ecological meteorological services and scientific support for the achievement of the “Dual Carbon” goals. In practical application, attention should be paid to uncertainty factors, including spatial heterogeneity of model parameters, regional accuracy differences of input data, and sensitivity of the classification method. Strategies such as establishing regionalized parameter libraries, multi-model ensemble simulation, and dynamic baseline updating are recommended to continuously reduce the uncertainty of evaluation results.

引用格式：崔晓军，赵俊芳，曹云，等. 面向“双碳”目标的森林植被固碳释氧生态功能气象评价等级标准化研究[J]. 标准化学报，2026(10)：113-121.

基金项目：本文受国家自然科学基金项目“黄淮海冬小麦拔节孕穗期霜冻害灾变机理解析及精准判识”（项目编号：42475197）；中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放研究课题“长江流域生态系统调节服务功能演变及其气象影响研究”（项目编号：23SWQXZ015）；中国气象局创新发展专项“重点生态区典型服务功能气象影响评估技术研发与业务应用”（项目编号：CXFZ2024J052）资助。

作者简介：崔晓军，硕士，正高级工程师，研究方向为气象标准化、气象教育培训理论与方法、气象科技管理等。赵俊芳，通信作者，博士，研究员，研究方向为农业气象、生态气象、气候变化等。